01
Platform-reported ROAS
Counts the conversions a platform can tie to its own ads. Misses whether those sales would have happened anyway.
Profit Measurement
Find out which ad spend actually makes you money.
Platform ROAS says one thing. Your P&L says another. We find out which is true, then get the algorithms bidding for profit instead of revenue.
Why the numbers stopped agreeing
The machine optimizes whatever you feed it
Meta and Google now make most of the targeting and bidding decisions. They're very good at chasing the outcome you tell them about. Tell them about revenue, and they'll find you revenue, including low-margin orders and customers who were going to buy anyway.
Then the same platform grades the result. It counts the sales its own tracking can connect to its own ads, which isn't the same as the sales it caused. And ROAS never netted out cost of goods in the first place, so a 3x on a thin-margin product and a 3x on a fat-margin product look identical on the chart you use to move money between them.
This isn't a tracking setup. Plenty of people can install a pixel. This is for brands spending real money per channel who need to know which of it is working.
02
Blended MER
All revenue over all marketing spend. Can't be gamed by attribution, but can't tell you which channel did the work.
03
Contribution margin
What's left after cost of goods, shipping, fees and the ad spend itself. The only one of the three you can actually spend.
What you get
The Profit Truth Audit
A written answer to "which spend is making us money," with the evidence behind it.
- Three-way reconciliation. Platform-reported vs. blended MER vs. your P&L, side by side, with the gaps explained.
- Contribution margin by channel and product. After cost of goods, shipping and fees, not just revenue.
- Signal health check. Conversions API and server-side tracking, event match quality, offline conversions, and what value you pass back to the platforms.
- Holdout test plan. For the two or three places most likely to be taking credit for demand you already had, like brand search and retargeting.
- Cut, hold, scale. A written recommendation for every major line item, with payback periods.
Then, if you keep going
- Signal engineering. Sending margin or LTV values to Meta and Google so they bid for profit.
- Quarterly incrementality readouts. Holdouts on the channels taking real budget.
- CFO-ready reporting. Margin and payback, in the format your finance team already uses.
How it runs
On the HUNT Framework
The same operating system behind every engagement. See the full framework.
Hunt
Reconcile platform, MER and P&L, and run the signal health check.
Unify
Put every channel on contribution margin and payback. One number, everywhere.
Navigate
Run holdouts where the spend justifies it, and send margin or LTV values back to the platforms.
Track & Convert
Quarterly incrementality readouts and reporting your CFO can sign off on.
Who it's for
Built for the person who signs off on the budget
Founder-led, by operators who've managed $250M+ in ad spend across 47 brands.
CFO / CEO
Reconciling the dashboard is an annual ritual
You want marketing reported in margin and payback, so allocation decisions hold up in the board meeting.
CRO / Head of Growth
You've stopped believing attribution
And you haven't found anything better. You want a number you can defend when you ask for more budget.
Director of Paid Media
You know some of the credit isn't real
You want the evidence before someone else finds it, and a cleaner signal so the algorithms work for you.
Founder
Revenue is up and the bank account isn't
You want to know which spend is paying for itself before you put more of your own money in.
When this isn't worth it
Under roughly $40K a month per channel, a proper geo holdout usually can't produce a result you can trust. If that's you, we'll recommend a cheaper path, like a platform lift study or a structural account review, instead of selling you a test. And if you just need a pixel installed, this isn't the service for you.
How to start
Start with the truth, then build on it
Profit Truth Audit
A one-time project
Starts at $4,500One-time project
- Platform vs. MER vs. P&L reconciliation
- Contribution margin by channel and product
- Signal health check
- Holdout test plan for your biggest credit risks
- Written cut, hold, scale plan with payback periods
Ongoing Profit Engineering
After the audit, if you want us to keep going
Scoped to your accountQuoted after the audit
- Margin or LTV values sent to Meta and Google
- Quarterly incrementality readouts
- CFO-ready reporting on margin and payback
Every account is different. Your price depends on scope and how involved you need us to be, from strategic guidance to fully hands-on. See how we put our fee on the line in The Wolf Pact.
FAQ
Measurement, answered
What is incrementality testing?
A test that measures how many sales your ads actually caused, by comparing people or regions that saw the ads with similar ones that didn't. Attribution asks which ad gets the credit. Incrementality asks how much more you sold because you spent the money.
Is my Meta ROAS accurate?
It's accurate about what it measures, which is the conversions Meta's tracking can connect to your ads. It doesn't tell you how many of those sales would have happened anyway. To know that, compare it with your blended numbers and, where the spend justifies it, run a holdout test.
Do I need Conversions API?
If you spend meaningfully on Meta, almost certainly. Browser tracking misses conversions, and Conversions API sends events from your server so the platform has better data to optimize with. We check it as part of the signal health check in the audit. It's not a standalone setup we sell.
How much ad spend do I need for a holdout test?
As a rough line, around $40K a month on the channel you want to test. Below that, a proper geo holdout usually can't produce a result you can trust. In that case we'll point you to a cheaper path, like a platform lift study or a structural account review, instead of selling you a test.
What is MER and why does it matter?
MER, or marketing efficiency ratio, is total revenue divided by total marketing spend. It doesn't depend on any platform's attribution, so it's a check on what the dashboards claim. We pair it with contribution margin so you can see whether that revenue is actually profitable.
Will this make my numbers look worse?
Often, yes, in month one. Margin-based numbers and incrementality results usually come in lower than platform-reported ROAS. That's the point. The new number is the one you can actually spend against, and the reallocation decisions it drives are where the money is.
Keep reading: ROAS is lying to you. Related services: Creative-Led Performance, Conversion Optimization, or all services.
Which of your spend is making money?
Book a call and we'll tell you what it would take to find out, and whether a full test is even worth it at your spend.